Introduction:
The Netherlands plans to reduce the number and types of tobacco retail outlets in the coming years and will be the first country to ban the sales of tobacco in supermarkets. Online sales of tobacco will be banned in 2023, tobacco sales in supermarkets will be banned in 2024, and tobacco sales will be limited to specialty shops in 2032 (and possibly sooner).

Material and Methods:
We have made predictions of changes in tobacco retail outlets, employment, and smoking prevalence after implementation of the policies by examining international experiences with similar legislation, performing interviews with stakeholders in the Netherlands, and performing economic modelling. Furthermore, we have started a comprehensive policy evaluation study to examine the actual implementation and impact of these policies. We present the findings of our study into the predicted effects of the policies, what we advised the Dutch government based on these findings, how the government now intends to implement the policies, and our research plans to comprehensively evaluate the actual implementation and impact of these policies.

Results:
There is growing support from Dutch stakeholders and society to limit tobacco sales to specialty shops. This policy option also has the largest expected effect on smoking prevalence, while effects on employment seem limited. To prevent an increase in the number of tobacco specialty shops (e.g. right next to a supermarket), it is important to implement a licensing system.

Conclusions:
Despite our recommendations to implement a licensing system, the Dutch government has opted to implement only a registration system. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether the policies that limit the types of tobacco retail outlets will actually lead to a reduction in the number of outlets. We have started a comprehensive policy evaluation to examine this. We believe that the methods of our evaluation can be used as a model for other comprehensive public policy evaluations.