Tax and price policies are widely recognised to be one of the most effective means of influencing smoking prevalence. Therefore, the excise tax on tobacco in the Netherlands increased in 2020, resulting in a price increase of about € 1,- per pack of cigarettes. The government intends to increase tobacco excise taxes further in the coming years, leading to a price of € 10,- per pack of cigarettes in 2023.
This study investigated how adolescent smokers intend to change their behaviour at hypothetical price increases of a pack of cigarettes, and which characteristics are associated with this intended behaviour. Among a panel of 776 Dutch smokers between 15 and 25 years, four behavioural options were investigated separately in an online survey: smoking less, quit smoking, switch to another/cheaper product, and shopping cigarettes cross-border.
About half of all smoking adolescents were daily smokers; the others smoked occasionally. At a hypothetical price of €10 per pack, smoking less was the most intended response (67%), followed by switching to another/cheaper product (61%), quit smoking (49%), and shopping cigarettes cross-border (47%). Prior quit attempts, agreeing with the increase in excise tax, and the intention to quit smoking in the future increased the odds of changing behaviour. Higher self-efficacy decreased the odds of behavioural change.
Despite the fact that intended behaviour can deviate significantly from realised behaviour, an increase in excise tax will presumably result in a significant amount of quit attempts and reduced smoking among adolescents. At the same time, these favourable outcomes might be partially offset by current smokers switching to other products and buying cigarettes cross-border.